Breaking down the Philadelphia Union's 2011 MLS Expansion Draft Protection List
by Ascalz on Nov 22, 2011 3:06 PM EST
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PrintAlright, it was just released so I figured I'd do a quick breakdown here and highlight who I thought would be protected and who ended up being protected and what it might mean for the team.
The actual protection list from the Union's website.
My Own List (Posted November 5th)
Mondragon, Williams, Califf, Valdes, G. Farfan, M. Farfan, Mwanga, Le Toux, Adu, Torres, Carroll, Pfeffer (HGP), Okugo (GA), McInerney (GA), MacMath (GA)
Exposed Players
(Note: My original blog didn't have Migz in the unprotected list or even at all, that goes to show you how little I like him. In actuality I forgot to add him because I was so focused on writing other things but he would have been unprotected in my list)
Daniel, Holder, Harrison, Richter, Mapp, Nakazawa, Houapeu, Tait, Gonzalez, Paunovic, Langley, Miglioranzi
Starting 11 Picks
10 for 11
I have to admit, the Union protecting Daniel surprised me. Given how they seemed to totally drop the ball on his paperwork, that would have allowed him to be in the United States through the rest of the season. The dropping of Adu genuinely caught me off guard but I'll get to what I think Nowak and Company are doing in a bit.
Homegrown Players/Generation Addidas Players
4 for 4
Called all 4 of them, and from what I've read Mwanga was almost assured of graduation and the fact that he did came as no surprise to me, or anyone. The others were naturally not going to since they either were Homegrown (Pfeffer) or didn't see enough minutes to warrant graduation (McInerney, MacMath and Okugo).
The Exposed
11 of 12
Okay, who actually saw Adu being exposed? He was a name that drew some media attention to the Union. Perhaps Nowak didn't see much from him in practice or on the field. I'll be honest here, I never thought Adu of all people would be left out there for Montreal to snap up. However, what does this all possibly mean for the team in the long run?
What this all means for the team
First of all lets look at the protected: Daniel and Torres stand out to me. Torres as has been mentioned in a previous blog is on loan. Protecting him tells me that the Union are going to do one of two things the first would be to buy him outright as they did Carlos Valdes, in all honesty not a bad move since Torres has been showing more confidence on the ball and his attacking skills have definitely improved from last season. The second would be to extend his loan which is also a good possibility, however, as Torres improves and gets more playing time and shows off his skill the price will rise. It'll be interesting to see how the Union handle the Torres situation.
Daniel is also interesting because it might mean that he gets more of a starting role in the lineup. I liked what I saw from Daniel this past season, good ball control and seemed to know how to hold the ball (a skill that much of the team seems to lack currently).
Going on to the unprotected, here are my three top candidates that might be picked up by Montreal and why they might and why they might not.
Freddy Adu
Why he might get picked
First of all, it would be a name splash that Montreal would like to have. Adu is only 22 years old so he still has plenty of time to become the player that everyone thought he would be when he first came into the league. Adu showed some good passing skills and his set pieces weren't bad. He played pretty much like a player brought in near the end of the season would. With a full off season under his belt with a team, he could be a good player. Furthermore, Adu could be traded to a team in exchange for a draft pick or two, Montreal really would have a bunch of options if they grab Adu from us.
Why he might NOT get picked
Adu has never really lived up to the hype of being the "American Pele" while young he hasn't exactly been a world beating talent, given the fact that he bounced around Europe for a few years with no real "home" probably didn't help his development. Some might argue that Adu is "broke" and he'll never be a great talent given that he might have "missed the bus" if you catch my meaning in terms of development. Also is his salary, Adu will most likely be a young designated player this upcoming season and Montreal might not want the burden of that kind of money to be paid.
Justin Mapp
Why he might get picked
Mapp is as proven a commodity as Montreal will get from the Union. He's played in the MLS since 2002 and knows how to play in the league. Plus, Jesse Marsch, the head coach of the Montreal Impact played with Mapp on the Chicago Fire squad from 2003-2005. He knows Mapp and how he handles himself on the field. Mapp could be a stabilizing force in the midfield for the new club.
Why he might NOT get picked
On his good days Mapp is a good player, however on his bad days...yeah. He tends to be stuck to using his left foot and doesn't deviate much from it. Defenses have had luck when they force him into using his right foot and he doesn't seem to be able to cope when that happens.
Kyle Nakazawa
Why he might get picked
Considered "a steal" for the Union in the 2010 Draft when they nabbed him in the 3rd round. Nakazawa is only 23 years old and has shown some decent set piece skills that he was known for when the Union drafted him. He hasn't gotten the chance to start consistently and Montreal might be the club where he's able to do that.
Why he might NOT get picked
Nakazawa has never blown me away on the field. You can argue that its because he hasn't gotten a ton of minutes and hey, I'd probably agree with you. However, I have to look at the body of his work that he's shown and what he's shown me hasn't been all that great.
Going back to the "what this means for the team" mentioned above, I think that the Union will be shopping for a LB in the off season and if Adu, Mapp or Nakazawa are taken (The other unprotected players I don't think really need to be worried about) then you have Gabriel Farfan to fit into his natural midfield role. Or even Keon Daniel if need be. Or they could keep Gabriel Farfan at LB and move Daniel into the vacated spot left by Mapp or Adu. Honestly, losing any of the three players I mentioned above won't hurt the Union all that much.
However, one complaint that I will address directly is the one of people wondering why we didn't protect Adu after "spending so much" to get him. First of all, the Union acquired him as essentially a free agent, he wasn't a designated player (at the time, though there is debate on whether or not he might be this upcoming season if he stays with the Union), and second, if taken, his big salary hit would come off the team, enabling the Union to sign more players which would help with the issue of depth they had all of last season.
Basically the Union put it's cards on the table and just called Montreal. The Impact could very well pick Adu and try and trade him, but there are no guarantees of that given the fact that Adu's salary will no doubt be hefty this upcoming season. The Union are betting that Montreal will pass on Adu and possibly take Mapp or Nakazawa, if they do take Adu they might try and trade him but its an iffy prospect at best to see if any team would be willing to take on his salary at that point and Montreal would be stuck with it.
In closing, I'm actually very pleased with the protected list and am getting more excited as to what else the Union have in store over the off season. At worst we lose Adu, Mapp or Nakazawa and each of those players is replaceable with the talent the team currently has, not to mention anyone they bring in during the off season.
Should be fun times in Philadelphia over the next few months. Enjoy the ride fellow DOOPers.
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break the surface....
You are looking at this in too much of an upfront manner. The inclusion of Adu on the unprotected list has nothing to do with his play but his salary. The U did not bring him here to see him gone after 3 months. The reality is that Montreal will not pick him because of his large contract. They have no incentive too. He was never the next “canadian Pele” so he won’t sell tickets and I doubt they would give him DP money and screw up their budget in the process.
Secondly,
I don’t see him being picked to be traded. When he agreed to enter in agreement with the league, he was fully aware as to where he would wind up. I’m sure it is quite well known that Adu only wanted to play for Nowak. Does a team trade for him knowing this and risk facing a $500k monumental blunder?
He was unprotected because he won’t be picked, same with Old Serb (age). Protecting Daniel made sense due to his salary vs. impact. To agree with SJM the liklihood is that either Mapp (relationship with Marsh) or Naka (versatile midfielder that has mls experience and is very cheap) will be picked.
Miqz, Mapp, and JDG are all at the end of their current agreement so the liklihood is that they will not return regardless or do so at a more reasonable, cap friendly price.
I think the player most likely to leave out of everyone could be Mwanga. Graduating from GA he is due almost $200k a year and that is an awful big part of an MLS salary cap for potential and 6 goals a year……..
Mwanga leaving
200K is essentially the hit for a young DP without the extra expense to the team – its not preventing the Union from adding anybody. Let’s clear the JDG money off the books before we start calling for Mwanga to go based on cap hit. I don’t see the Union quitting on Mwanga or shipping him anywhere in MLS – if the let him go it would have to be to a sale overseas.
Based off what head coach Jesse Marsch has said ("That’s a guy we’re thinking about") I’m leaning more and more towards him getting taken by Montreal.
The only reason Adu didn’t end up with Chivas USA as a designated player is because the owner balked at paying Adu DP money. So Adu didn’t “just” want to play for Nowak. Adu will most likely want to play where he can prove himself and get back onto the USMNT squad and remember, Adu signed a contract with the MLS, NOT the Philadelphia Union. Adu can be picked and traded to wherever Montreal wants (if they pick him). Adu can’t do anything about it since MLS’ player contract structure is different from any other league or sport. Oh he could do a Carlos Tevez and refuse to play for whatever team he ends up with but that would add a prima donna tag to Adu which he can’t afford at this stage in his career.
Mwanga is going into his third year. He obviously had a sophmore slump and before we start calling for his head, I’d like to see how well he can do with consistent minutes. Mwanga has shown great physicality and scoring touch for some games (Chivas, Colorado, LA) and games where he’s vanished (Chicago being one). Normally in most sports I give the player three or four years of consistent start time before I start to label them a bust.
Honestly, its still to early to speculate why Mwanga played as poorly as he did down the stretch. Lack of playing time? Nerves? Injury? A combination of them? I’ll give the kid through the upcoming season before I say whether or not the Union should jettison him.
I still think it’s unlikely they take Adu, but if that happens, we could have a potential disaster on our hands. Think of Adu as “leverage” in our efforts to purchase the contract of Roger Torres. If Adu gets picked we then we would build around Torres next year. The staff over at America de Cali would recognize that, and in turn could raise the asking price for Torres. Plus, I highly doubt they are going to extend his loan option. It could be MOF part 2. Now while I think the Union FO would deem Torres too invaluable to lose, I know money dictates the majority of decisions.
This would be the absolute worst case scenario (and probably unlikely), but it does have the potential to happen.
Mwanga couls leave, not should leave lol
I’m not suggesting that I want to see Mwanga go, it is just that he has a much larger price tag now then before (in cap terms). If they are really looking hard at a seasoned experineced striker then they may have to make a decision….
If we bring in a striker from MLS, I would love to see Espindola teamed with LeToux, word is that RSL may not be able to keep him for cap/financial reasons….
Low Roster Turnover, Please
We need a few pieces to make a run at a championship – I don’t think anyone would really disagree with that. The Union were spared a real run in with injuries this year and last and could have been in serious trouble on defense. But good teams need consistency and continuity from year to year, not just new talent. Here’s hoping the “OUT” list is relatively short for the Union this offseason and that we extend the stay of our youngsters (Torres) and find a way maybe even to keep a vet around (Miglioranzi) at a much lower cap hit.
thanks for the update
My employer blocks the live stream…
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