Playoff Scenarios And Why The Union Should Finish Second In The Eastern Conference

by Scott Kessler on Oct 12, 2011 11:28 AM EDT in Editorials

The Philadelphia Union have an opportunity, on Saturday, to clinch the franchise's first ever playoff birth. Here's how the team can capitalize on its success and reach the playoffs (via PhiladelphiaUnion.com):

Philadelphia Union will clinch a berth in the MLS Cup Playoffs if:

· They defeat Toronto FC (Oct. 15)

OR

· They tie Toronto FC (Oct. 15) AND

· Portland and Houston tie (Oct. 14) OR

· New York tie or lose to Kansas City (Oct. 15)

OR

· There is a winner in the Portland-Houston game (Oct. 14) AND

· New York lose to Kansas City (Oct. 15)

The second year club has surpassed almost every expectation prognosticated by the Union faithful, improving from 33 points in 2010 to 47 points thus far in 2011. One more point from either of the Union's next two games against Toronto FC and the New York Red Bulls will give Philadelphia the MLS record for biggest positive change over a season in the league's history.

But that success might lead the team into the wrong position to make a deep run in the playoffs. Jonathan Tannenwald, of Philly.com and The Goalkeeper, has used Twitter to try to warn Union fans about the dangers of finishing in first place in the Eastern Conference. As the standings currently are, the Union would potentially face FC Dallas in their first ever playoff series, a team that the Union have only taken two points away from in four games (0-2-2).

This season the Union managed to come back from a 2-0 deficit at PPL Park to tie the game at 2-2, but Sebastien Le Toux had to convert two penalties to make that happen. Philadelphia has scored only two goals from the run of play versus Dallas, which may be one of the hardest match ups for the Union that can be faced in the playoffs.

If the Union were to finish in second or third they would avoid playing any of the wild card teams in their first playoff series, and would instead face a team like Sporting Kansas City, the Columbus Crew, the Red Bulls or the Houston Dynamo. The Union drew SKC twice, split the season series versus the Crew, beat the Red Bulls in the first leg of their season series (they play their second game on October 20 at Red Bull Arena) and took four of a possible six points from the Dynamo.

MLS' 2011 playoff system has the four wild card teams playing in the first round of the playoffs, with the top seed (currently Dallas) playing the fourth seed (currently the Dynamo) and the second seed (Colorado Rapids) playing the third seed (the Red Bulls). The Western Conference champion, the Los Angeles Galaxy, will play the lowest remaining seeded wild card team after the first round, since the Galaxy are the Supporters Shield winners. The Eastern Conference's champion will face off against the other wild card team left, which, as previously stated, is potentially Dallas.

In a weak Eastern Conference, the Union's best chance at moving on in the playoffs is to avoid playing Dallas and staying within the teams that they haven proven they can beat. Building confidence in the playoffs is necessary for a team that has made its run based upon the youth on its roster. While Brian Carroll has a long history with MLS playoffs, much of the team's important players are relatively new to MLS, let alone the playoffs. Playin Dallas right away might be the worst situation that the Union can put themselves into facing.

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I think at this point I care more about winning the eastern conference in the regular season than I do about potential playoff matchups and runs, but that might just be me.

by danielfarrell on Oct 12, 2011 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

Wildcard round is midweek

Don’t ignore that the teams playing in the wildcard round will have to play in the middle of the week, while the Top 3 will get a week’s rest.

In the situation you put forward, Scott, the Union would have significantly more time to rest and prepare than FC Dallas. If the Union were to finish second or third, they would play a team that also gets a full week. So it may be preferable to finish in first after all. And of course, Houston and Dallas are huge rivals and it’s not impossible that a team like the Dynamo could upset Dallas, which would then led to a great situation for Philly.

Oh, yeah, and there’s also the fact that Dallas has LOST its last FIVE games, against teams like Houston and New York, who they’d play in that wildcard round.

Philadelphia Union beat writer at Soccer By Ives. Madridista de corazón. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @joeysamuel

by Joey Samuel on Oct 12, 2011 11:42 AM EDT reply actions

In addition

Throw in their Champions League games, and they’ve only earned one point in eight games.

Philadelphia Union beat writer at Soccer By Ives. Madridista de corazón. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @joeysamuel

by Joey Samuel on Oct 12, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

they have also been shutout in there last 4 games. Not generating much offense lately, and the team looks pretty tired. The next couple games for them will tell us if they are back on track. But at this point, i am not to worried about them.

by Rhayes on Oct 12, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions

No matter how tired they are, or how poor their form is, their attacking talent has proven too much for the Union.

There’s just too much risk in facing them. The Union match up very poorly against them.

Managing Editor for Brotherly Game, SBNation's Philadelphia Union blog and contributor for SBN Philly. // @scottdkessler
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank

by Scott Kessler on Oct 12, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions

I really couldn’t disagree more. Sebastien Le Toux was not on his current tear for either of the two Dallas games. And who has been the Union’s second-best player in recent weeks? Michael Farfan. He didn’t play a single minute in either game against FCD.

Philadelphia Union beat writer at Soccer By Ives. Madridista de corazón. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @joeysamuel

by Joey Samuel on Oct 12, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Sheanon Williams said on Tuesday, "Right now, we’re just thinking about first place. The guys really want to be in first place. If we’re in first place, then guess what? We’re in the playoffs. So that should be our first goal."

How exactly do you tell professional athletes that they “should” finish second?

by Ed Farnsworth on Oct 12, 2011 1:33 PM EDT reply actions

First of all, I wouldn't tell them that.

Secondly, first place in the East means nothing in terms of silverware. It’s not the Supporters Shield, MLS Cup, USOC or Champions League. You win nothing but a potential ‘second’ round match up with the strongest of the non-automatic births Western Conference team.

Third, of course an athlete wants to do his best and have the team finish the highest it can. That’s especially true when there’s a pot of $50,000 for the team to spread around if they do so.

Fourth, I don’t see anything wrong with pointing out that the playoffs are inherently easier by facing an Eastern conference team.

Managing Editor for Brotherly Game, SBNation's Philadelphia Union blog and contributor for SBN Philly. // @scottdkessler
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank

by Scott Kessler on Oct 12, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions

It's fine that you don't see anything wrong with that, but it's not true

There’s no way that facing an Eastern team is “inherently” easier. That’s ridiculous. There are so many other factors, aside from the fact that Dallas will have to play on 3 days rest. Sporting Kansas City are playing significantly better than FC Dallas, who narrowly edged the Chicago Fire tonight in their first win in SIX games. This FC Dallas team is not the same as the one that the Union drew and lost to earlier this year. The Union have improved, and Dallas appears to have gotten worse.

Philadelphia Union beat writer at Soccer By Ives. Madridista de corazón. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @joeysamuel

by Joey Samuel on Oct 12, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions

That Chicago team had taken 10 of its last 12 points prior to the loss...

On top of that, Marfan may not have played in the 2-2 draw, but neither did Fabian Castillo, who was excellent versus the Union the first time around (2-0 loss). David Ferreira might even be back for the playoff game, meaning that a player like him or Daniel Hernandez will be coming off of the bench. The bench.

Here are the stats:

18 games (West): 4-6-8 (20 points out of a possible 54)

11-7-14 (season so far)

14 games (East): 7-1-6 (27 out of a possible 42)

West playoff teams:
1-5-6 (9 of 36 points)

Houston 1-0-1
New York 1-0-0
Chicago 1-0-1
SportingKC 0-0-2
DCUnited 1-0-1
NERev 1-0-1
Columbus 1-1-0
Toronto 1-0-0

East playoff teams:
4-1-4 (16 of 27 points)

Managing Editor for Brotherly Game, SBNation's Philadelphia Union blog and contributor for SBN Philly. // @scottdkessler
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank

by Scott Kessler on Oct 13, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Sure, the West is better. We know that, Scott.

My point is that there are other factors at play.

Dallas would have to play a mid-week game as a wildcard qualifier, and the Union wouldn’t. Neither 2nd or 3rd play that midweek game, so the advantage disappears.

Oh yeah, and don’t forget that small notion of HOSTING the Eastern Conference championship game. If we finish 2nd or 3rd, we’d have to hope that Dallas (in your hypothetical) beats the 1st place team. That would become the only way we host the East championship game, but it would be against Dallas, and so we end up playing them anyway.

Philadelphia Union beat writer at Soccer By Ives. Madridista de corazón. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @joeysamuel

by Joey Samuel on Oct 14, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

And BTW

What do you mean you “wouldn’t tell them that,” that they “should” finish second?

The title of your piece includes “Why the Union Should Finish Second”.

Philadelphia Union beat writer at Soccer By Ives. Madridista de corazón. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @joeysamuel

by Joey Samuel on Oct 12, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Why the Union should finish second.

Not “Nowak, tell the team to finish in second place.” An opinion piece with a scenario showing why first may not equate to being the best situation.

Managing Editor for Brotherly Game, SBNation's Philadelphia Union blog and contributor for SBN Philly. // @scottdkessler
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank

by Scott Kessler on Oct 13, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

One more point from either of the Union’s next two games against Toronto FC and the New York Red Bulls will give Philadelphia the MLS record for biggest positive change over a season in the league’s history.

1 more point would give the Union an improvement of 15 points on 2010. In 2006, Chivas USA went from 18 points the previous season to 43 points, a 25 point swing. That’s just poor fact-checking.

by Keith Hickey on Oct 13, 2011 2:37 AM EDT reply actions

Thanks for picking up on that mistake.

But I don’t need to remind you of your own mistakes, eh Keith?

Managing Editor for Brotherly Game, SBNation's Philadelphia Union blog and contributor for SBN Philly. // @scottdkessler
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank

by Scott Kessler on Oct 13, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I’m not an editor. You’re the one ultimately responsible for what goes up on your blog.

by Keith Hickey on Oct 13, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions

It's semantics considering fact checking starts with the writer...

Managing Editor for Brotherly Game, SBNation's Philadelphia Union blog and contributor for SBN Philly. // @scottdkessler
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank

by Scott Kessler on Oct 13, 2011 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions

Would you feel better if the MLS just awarded the Union the Championship. That way we would not have to play any teams that could beat us!

by philly77 on Oct 13, 2011 12:33 PM EDT reply actions

What's wrong with discussing the routes that are easiest and hardest?

Confused as to why it has to all be black and white.

Managing Editor for Brotherly Game, SBNation's Philadelphia Union blog and contributor for SBN Philly. // @scottdkessler
"College is only 4 years, but the Eagles are for life." - Ironhank

by Scott Kessler on Oct 13, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions